Brazil Citrus Annual 2009

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The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO/Sao Paulo) forecasts the total Brazilian orange crop for MY 2010/11 (Jul-Jun) at 435Mbx, a 2 percent increase compared to the current crop (MY 2009/10), assuming that good weather conditions prevail as of mid-December 2009 to support fruit setting and size. The commercial area of the state of Sao Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should produce 335 Mbx. Note that this figure takes into account the 4 major varieties of citrus used for processing orange juice (Hamlin, Pera Rio, Natal and Valencia) plus a limited volume (12 million boxes) of other citrus varieties such as Lima, Bahia, Murcorte and Poncan which are used for processing juice. Production from other states is projected at 100 MBx.

It is still too early to project MY 2010/11 production. More precise numbers should be available in the beginning of the second quarter of 2010. The current production forecast is based on the excellent first blossoming (August-September) in the majority of the citrus areas and steady warm and wet weather in all growing regions; therefore, promoting strong development of the fruit. The projection also takes into account an expected third blossoming in December-January. Note that the unusual wet weather that prevailed during August-October has negatively affected the first blossoming in some growing regions, especially the South, thus reducing the potential for a higher crop.

Sergio Barros